A comprehensive international study led by Arteh co-founder Dr Saphira Rekker has found that 9 out of 10 major Australian electricity companies are not reducing their greenhouse gas emissions quickly enough to align with the Paris Agreement goals.
Despite years of pledges and public commitments, companies like AGL, EnergyAustralia, and Origin Energy are falling short of what’s needed to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C—let alone reach the more ambitious 1.5°C target.
The only Australian electricity provider found to be aligned with Paris targets was Engie, the French multinational that closed the Hazelwood coal plant in 2017 and plans to retire its gas plants by 2037.
This study, published in Nature Communications and developed in collaboration with researchers from the University of Queensland, Oxford, and Princeton, assessed electricity and cement companies across emissions-intensive sectors. The results? Eye-opening.
“These results are alarming and show the stark reality of how businesses continue to operate without a clear plan for decarbonisation,” said Dr Rekker.
A Scientific Approach to Corporate Accountability
The team created a transparent method to test whether companies’ emissions targets are actually Paris-aligned, based on fair carbon budgets and credible decarbonisation pathways. Many companies, however, had set emissions baselines post-2020—effectively ignoring years of high emissions prior to that date. The study uses a 2014 baseline, consistent with International Energy Agency modelling.
“There’s a lot of talk about being ‘Paris-compliant,’ but very little scientific rigour to back it up,” Rekker explained. “Our findings show the maths doesn’t add up.”
The analysis also highlighted that many Australian companies delayed climate action by years after the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015. Others, such as Stanwell, CS Energy, Alinta, Delta, Millmerran and Callide, were also flagged as not being on track.
Why It Matters for Business and the Planet
This study comes at a critical time. Climate impacts are already being felt—from floods to fires—and investors are increasingly focused on transition risks, legal liabilities, and stranded assets.
“This work is essential for ensuring companies remain accountable—not just to the climate goals they’ve publicly embraced, but to the people and ecosystems that are impacted by their choices,” said Dr Matthew Ives, a contributor to the study and now Director of Economic Strategy with the South Australian Department of the Premier and Cabinet.
The Path Forward
The research team is making their assessment tool freely available to help executives, investors, and stakeholders measure progress and push for genuine climate alignment. A similar assessment applied to the steel sector found that most companies had already blown their entire carbon budget by 2019.
At Arteh, we believe in empowering businesses to do better—with transparency, science-based tools, and accessible reporting to support net-zero goals. This study serves as both a wake-up call and a roadmap: change is not only possible, it’s necessary.
