Project-Level GHG Emissions Modelling for Environmental Approvals | Arteh Australia

Predictive GHG Emissions Modelling — Forward Estimation, Not Retrospective Reporting

ARTEH provides specialist, predictive greenhouse gas emissions modelling for projects navigating environmental approval processes across Australia. Our work sits at the critical intersection of environmental engineering, regulatory compliance, and climate policy — delivering the quantitative carbon analysis that planning authorities now require before granting development consent for major infrastructure, resource extraction, and industrial projects.

Every Australian jurisdiction has developed statutory instruments, environmental factor guidelines, and planning directives that enforce rigorous predictive carbon modelling as part of Environmental Impact Statements (EIS), Environmental Authority (EA) applications, and Environment Effects Statements (EES). From Queensland’s Environmental Authority framework to Western Australia’s uncompromising net zero trajectory requirements, proponents must demonstrate how their project’s life-cycle emissions align with legislated net zero emissions targets by 2050. We build those models.

Our modelling encompasses full life-cycle GHG inventories across Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions, dynamic forward-looking emissions trajectories, formal GHG abatement plans applying the mitigation hierarchy, and benchmarking against international best practice — all calculated using NGER Act methodologies aligned to the GHG Protocol and ISO 14064 to ensure seamless alignment with future compliance obligations.

Important: ARTEH does not provide NGER or Safeguard Mechanism reporting services. Our expertise is in forward estimation and predictive modelling for environmental approvals — helping you secure project consent by building the technical emissions case that regulators and planning authorities require before a project breaks ground.

GHG Emissions Modelling Under Every Australian Regulatory Framework

Each Australian state and territory applies different emission thresholds, assessment methodologies, and disclosure requirements for project approvals. We model to the specific regulatory expectations of your project’s jurisdiction.

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Commonwealth

EPBC Act / EPR Act 2025

The reformed federal framework mandates Scope 1, 2, and 3 disclosure for any project triggering EPBC assessment. Proponents must demonstrate emissions management strategies aligned with the Safeguard Mechanism and national climate targets.

Scope 1 + 2 + 3 Mandatory
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Queensland

EP Act 1994 / Guideline ESR/2024/6819

Environmental Authority applications require categorisation of GHG emission profiles. Medium-to-high emitters must provide comprehensive inventories, Scope 3 estimates, and a formal GHG Abatement Plan applying the avoidance-first hierarchy.

GHG Abatement Plan Required
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Western Australia

EP Act 1986 / Factor Guideline (Nov 2024)

One of the most prescriptive frameworks nationally. Projects exceeding 100,000 tCO₂-e trigger assessment with mandatory linear reduction trajectories to net zero by 2050. Strict anti-splitting rules prevent threshold evasion.

Linear Trajectory to Net Zero
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New South Wales

EP&A Act 1979 / Large Emitters Guide 2024

A structured eight-step modelling methodology for projects exceeding 25,000 tCO₂-e. The EIS-phase mitigation plan transitions into a legally binding Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Plan (CCMAP) attached to the environment protection licence.

25,000 tCO₂-e Threshold
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Victoria

EP Act 2017 / GED Publication 2048

Victoria’s General Environmental Duty applies universally with no minimum emission threshold. All businesses must identify, assess, and minimise GHG emissions. Major projects undergo Environment Effects Statement assessment with bespoke scoping.

No Minimum Threshold
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South Australia

PDI Act 2016 / EP Act 1993

Impact Assessed Development requires detailed EIS preparation including climate resilience modelling. A new Climate Change EPP is being drafted to formalise binding requirements for emissions limits across all industrial operations.

Climate Resilience Modelling
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Northern Territory

EA Act 1994 / NT GHG Guide

Uniquely granular requirements mandating gas-by-gas identification (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, CFx, HFCs, SF₆). Full life-cycle assessment with greenhouse gas efficiency benchmarking against global comparators is required.

Gas-by-Gas Reporting
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Tasmania

EMPCA 1994

Level 2 activities require whole-of-life GHG estimates with Scope 1, 2, and 3 inventories. Proponents selecting higher-intensity technologies face a rigorous burden of proof to justify deviation from best practice.

Whole-of-Life Estimates
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Australian Capital Territory

Planning Act 2023

The lowest volumetric threshold in Australia at just 250 tCO₂-e per year, reflecting the ACT’s urban-centric focus. Modelling captures construction emissions, lifecycle energy consumption, waste disposal, and transport matrices.

250 tCO₂-e Threshold

Emissions Modelling Deliverables

Each engagement is scoped to the specific regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction, project type, and greenhouse gas emission profile.

01

Predictive GHG Inventories

Comprehensive Scope 1, 2, and 3 emission quantification over the full operational life of the project, using NGER Act methodologies and aligned to the GHG Protocol and ISO 14064.

02

Dynamic Emissions Trajectories

Forward-looking emission curves demonstrating alignment with jurisdictional net-zero targets and interim reduction milestones — including linear trajectory modelling where required (WA, NSW).

03

GHG Abatement Plans

Formal abatement strategies applying the mitigation hierarchy — avoid, reduce, substitute, offset — with commercial and technical justification for all technology selections.

04

Best Practice Benchmarking

Greenhouse gas efficiency benchmarking against comparable domestic and international operations, demonstrating your project utilises best available technology and practices.

05

Climate Resilience Assessment

Modelling the physical impacts of climate change on your project site — heatwave exposure, hydrological changes, flood risk — as required under SA, QLD, and Victorian frameworks.

06

Life-Cycle Analysis

Cradle-to-grave emissions modelling from raw material extraction through to end-product disposal, including embodied energy in construction materials and land-use change emissions.

What We Do and Don’t Cover

What We Provide

  • Forward estimation of project-level GHG emissions for environmental approvals (EIS, EA, EES, DA)
  • Predictive modelling under all state, territory, and Commonwealth regulatory frameworks
  • Scope 1, 2, and 3 inventories using NGER methodologies for pre-approval submissions
  • Dynamic emissions trajectories aligned to jurisdictional net-zero targets
  • GHG abatement plans, mitigation hierarchy analysis, and offset strategy development
  • Climate resilience and adaptation modelling for project sites
  • Cross-jurisdictional threshold analysis and regulatory strategy advice
  • Modelling under the EPBC Act / Environment Protection Reform Act 2025

Outside Our Scope

  • NGER scheme annual compliance reporting — we recommend specialist NGER reporters for operational facilities
  • Safeguard Mechanism baseline administration or annual compliance submissions
  • Retrospective emissions reporting for existing operational facilities
  • Carbon credit generation, issuance, or trading under the Australian Carbon Credit Unit scheme
  • Corporate-level AASB S2 climate financial disclosure preparation (see the ARTEH Platform for automated climate risk reporting)

How a GHG Emissions Modelling Engagement Works

Every modelling engagement is built around the specific environmental approval requirements of your jurisdiction and project type.

1

Regulatory Scoping

We identify your jurisdictional triggers, applicable thresholds, and the specific modelling outputs required by your planning authority or EPA.

2

Boundary & Source Mapping

Define project assessment boundaries, map all emission sources across Scope 1, 2, and 3, and establish the modelling methodology framework.

3

Predictive Modelling

Build the emissions inventory using NGER methodologies, model dynamic trajectories, and develop the abatement plan with mitigation hierarchy analysis.

4

Approval-Ready Deliverables

Compile the GHG Assessment Report and Mitigation Plan formatted to the precise regulatory specifications required for your approval submission.

Common Questions About Project-Level Emissions Modelling

What is project-level greenhouse gas emissions modelling?

Project-level GHG emissions modelling is the predictive quantification of a proposed project’s greenhouse gas emissions across Scope 1, 2 and 3 before construction begins. It is required by Australian environmental planning authorities as part of Environmental Impact Statements (EIS), Environmental Authority (EA) applications, and development assessments to demonstrate that a project’s emissions profile aligns with jurisdictional net zero targets and the mitigation hierarchy has been applied.

Which Australian jurisdictions require GHG emissions modelling for project approvals?

All eight Australian states and territories now require some form of GHG emissions assessment for major project approvals, in addition to the Commonwealth under the EPBC Act (and the Environment Protection Reform Act 2025). Requirements vary significantly: Western Australia mandates linear net zero trajectories for projects exceeding 100,000 tCO₂-e, New South Wales applies an eight-step methodology above 25,000 tCO₂-e, Queensland requires formal GHG Abatement Plans, Victoria has no minimum threshold under its General Environmental Duty, and the ACT applies the lowest threshold nationally at just 250 tCO₂-e per year.

What is a GHG Abatement Plan and when is it required?

A GHG Abatement Plan is a formal document required by several Australian jurisdictions — notably Queensland and New South Wales — that applies the mitigation hierarchy (avoid, reduce, substitute, offset) to demonstrate how a project will minimise its greenhouse gas emissions over its operational life. It must include quantified Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions inventories, best-available-technology justification, and alignment with jurisdictional net zero targets. In Queensland, it is required for any Environmental Authority applicant classified as a medium-to-high emitter (25,000+ tCO₂-e per year).

Does ARTEH provide NGER or Safeguard Mechanism reporting?

No. ARTEH specialises in forward estimation and predictive emissions modelling for the pre-approval phase of project development. We do not provide retrospective NGER compliance reporting or Safeguard Mechanism baseline administration for operational facilities. However, our modelling uses NGER Act methodologies to ensure that the emissions inventory we produce for your approval submission aligns seamlessly with future NGER reporting obligations. For corporate-level climate disclosure and AASB S2 reporting, see the ARTEH Platform.

What emission scopes does ARTEH model?

ARTEH models all three greenhouse gas emission scopes as defined by the GHG Protocol: Scope 1 (direct emissions from owned or controlled sources), Scope 2 (indirect emissions from purchased electricity, heat or steam), and Scope 3 (value-chain emissions including upstream supply chain and downstream product use). All calculations use NGER Act methodologies and are aligned to ISO 14064 to ensure regulatory acceptance and future compliance readiness.

Get Your Project’s Emissions Modelling Right the First Time

Whether you’re lodging an Environmental Authority in Queensland, an EIS in New South Wales, or navigating the reformed EPBC Act — ARTEH builds the GHG emissions models that planning authorities require for project approval.

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